Thomas P. McGrath

Overview: Policies are needed to rapidly mitigate GHG emissions while ensuring energy security

2023 was the hottest year on record with an average global temperature of 1.48°C (2.66°F) higher than the pre-industrial level.

Climate change induced extreme and catastrophic weather- and climate-events currently cost the U.S. about $150 billion a year. Billion-dollar (inflation adjusted) events now occur about six times more frequently than in the 1980's. Without a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, more frequent and extreme weather- and climate-events will lead to unsustainable costs for insurance companies and taxpayers and burden future generations with lower economic growth and social disruption.

Although the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act provides financial incentives for the U.S. to transition to a lower GHG emissions economy, the U.S. Congress needs to take additional action to address this important issue. Policies are needed to rapidly mitigate GHG emissions while ensuring energy security.

- Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion account for about 75% of U.S. GHG emissions. A steady reduction in fossil fuel use balanced by an increase in power generation from renewable and other low-carbon energy sources is a priority.

- Methane is a potent near-term GHG and emissions from livestock, fossil fuel systems, and landfills should be controlled.

- A gradually applied, progressive fee on carbon/GHG emissions is needed to use market forces to cost-effectively drive lower fossil fuel use and GHG emissions.

Finally, the U.S. needs a comprehensive plan to a world leader in the low-cost clean technologies of the future or risk permanently ceding dominance to China.

Primary GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Methane is a potent near-term GHG

The warming effect on earth caused by the absorption and trapping of thermal radiation from the earth’s surface by atmospheric gases is called the “greenhouse effect”. Primary anthropogenic (emitted by human activity) GHGs include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2 and is a potent short-term GHG (e.g., 20 year period).

Global surface temperature rise since 1850 has been caused by emissions of GHGs from human activity

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) [1], released in 2023, estimated that by 2019 emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by human activities had caused an increase in average global temperature of about 1.1°C (2.0°F) since the start of the Industrial Revolution (~1850). Further, the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service (EU Copernicus) recently reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record with an average global temperature of 1.48°C (2.66°F) higher than the pre-industrial level and 0.17°C (0.31°F) higher than the previous global average high temperature in 2016. [2] The IPCC AR6 states:

“Formal detection and attribution studies synthesize information from climate models and observations and show that the best estimate is that all the warming observed between 1850–1900 and 2010–2019 is caused by humans”

The figure from EU Copernicus shows the average global surface temperature from 1850 to 2023. Analysis in AR6 shows that this temperature correlates with GHG emissions from human activities and atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O. A steep and steady temperature rise starting about 1970 is observed.

Future global temperatures depend on GHG emissions increase or decrease and atmospheric CO2 removal

The figure from the Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment report [3], released in 2023, shows estimates of U.S. temperature warming for different CO2emissions pathways. It is estimated that the Very High emissions scenario, which is basically business-as-usual with fossil fuel development, would result in about a 6.5°F (3.6°C) temperature rise (from 1850 baseline) by 2050 and about a 13°F (7.2°C) temperature rise by 2095. The Intermediate emissions scenario, which includes a reduction in CO2emissions and expanded use of renewable and low-carbon energy, would result in about a 5.5°F (3.1°C) temperature rise by 2050 and a 7°F (3.9°C) temperature rise by 2095. The Very Low emissions scenario, which includes a net reduction in atmospheric CO2 emissions and expanded use of renewable and nuclear energy, would result in about a 4°F (2.2°C) temperature rise by 2050 and a 3°F (1.7°C) temperature rise by 2095.

Extreme and catastrophic weather- and climate-events cost the U.S. about $150 billion a year

Climate change induced extreme and catastrophic weather- and climate-events currently cost the U.S. about $150 billion a year. Billion-dollar (inflation adjusted) events now occur about six times more frequently than in the 1980's. Without a rapid reduction in GHG emissions, more frequent and extreme events will lead to unsustainable costs for insurance companies and taxpayers and burden future generations with lower economic growth and social disruption.

Increases to wildfires, sea level rise and coastal and river flooding, tropical cyclones, crop failure, drought, and heat waves are being experienced and expected to further increase if global temperatures continue to rise. Economic costs from extreme weather events include damage to infrastructure, disruptions in labor and public services, and property value losses. Other climate change impacts and hazards could include increased migration; more mosquitos and ticks and associated diseases; and poorer air quality. Long-term, the melting of glaciers could lead to catastrophic sea-level rise.

75% of U.S. GHG emissions are CO2 from fossil fuel combustion

75% of U.S. GHG emissions are CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and need to be the primary focus of GHG emissions reduction efforts. Methane emissions account for about 12% of GHG emissions over 100 years but about 28% based on 20-year time period. [4] Thus, near term reduction in methane emissions is important for slowing Climate Change.

The figure presents fossil fuel combustion CO2 emissions by fuel type and economic sector. Coal is primarily burned to generate electricity. Petroleum (gasoline, diesel) is primarily used for transportation. Natural gas is used in many sectors. The largest methane emission sources are livestock (enteric fermentation + manure management = 36% of total), natural gas + petroleum systems (32% of total) and landfills (17% of total).

Reduce fossil fuel use balanced by an increase in renewable energy power generation

Priority actions to reduce GHG emissions and stabilize global temperatures include increase power generation from renewable and low-carbon energy sources, steady phasing out of fossil fuels, reduce methane emissions, improve the energy efficiency of equipment and processes, and implement carbon removal practices and processes.

Renewable energy sources include solar and wind. Nuclear and hydrogen are low-carbon/GHG emissions energy sources. In 2022, the cost to produce solar- and wind-power generated electricity was less than the cost of fossil-fuel generated power. [5] Nuclear power is a viable complement to solar- and wind-power. Bill Gates founded a company, TerraPower, that is building nuclear power plants designed to be safe and practical for the future.

CO2 emissions per unit energy are highest for coal, then petroleum (gasoline, diesel), and natural gas is lowest and the fuels should be phased out in that order. Natural gas can be thought of as a bridge fuel from a fossil fuel-based economy to a renewable energy-based economy.

A geopolitical consideration is that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are funded by oil revenues for Russia and Iran. Policies that reduce fossil fuel use could limit the capacity of these countries to fund and wage war. Carbon removal practices and processes include simple to implement natural carbon sinks (e.g., plant trees) and complex and expensive CO2 capture systems (e.g., from the atmosphere and combustion systems)

A policy priority is a progressive GHG emissions fee/tax with border adjustment

Existing policies and incentives to mitigate climate change include the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Federal regulations to limit methane emissions from oil and gas systems, and Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets. Key additional policy priorities include a progressive GHG emissions fee/tax with border adjustment, renewable energy training for fossil fuel industry workers, and laws to reduce methane and N2O emissions from agriculture systems.

The IRA provides financial incentives for the U.S. to transition to a lower GHG emissions economy. Incentives are included for manufacturers of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, etc.; electric vehicle purchases; clean energy projects; and preservation of natural carbon sinks. A study estimated that IRA provisions could reduce U.S. GHG emissions between 43% and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035. [6] A progressively higher price on carbon/GHG emissions with border adjustment (i.e., domestic and foreign companies pay the same fee) is needed to use market forces to cost-effectively drive lower global fossil fuel use and GHG emissions. [8 9] A net gain of up to 5 million jobs over a 25-year transition from a fossil fuel-based to renewable energy-based economy has been estimated. [3] Providing training for fossil fuel industry workers will facilitate this transition. [9]

The U.S. Needs a Plan for GHG Emissions Reduction, Energy Security, and Clean Technology Development

The U.S. needs to develop a comprehensive plan to mitigate climate change that includes GHG emissions reduction and carbon capture targets with a milestone schedule.

The plan should also promote the U.S. as a world leader in the low-cost clean technologies of the future. At this time, China is way ahead of the U.S. in many key areas including manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, solar- and wind-power equipment, and electric vehicles. As demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles increases and they become more economical than fossil fuels and gasoline-powered vehicles, the U.S. needs to reverse these trends or risk permanently ceding dominance to China.

References

1. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

2. “Copernicus: 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit”, Copernicus Climate Change Service, January 9, 2024. https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record

3. USGCRP, 2023: Fifth National Climate Assessment, Crimmins, A.R., et al. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 2023. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/#overview

4. EPA (2023) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-23-002. www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks-1990-2021

5. www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022

6. “Options for Reducing the Deficit”, Posted by Phill Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director, on March 6, 2023. www.cbo.gov/publication/58981

7. The Hamiliton Project “The coming fiscal cliff: A blueprint for tax reform in 2025”, Kimberly Clausing and Natasha Sarin, September 2023. www.brookings.edu/articles/the-coming-fiscal-cliff-a-blueprint-for-tax-reform-in-2025/

8. “Emissions and Energy System Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” Bristline et al, Science, Volume 380, Issue 6651, June 29, 2023. www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adg3781

9. “Training Fossil Fuel Workers to Transition to Renewables Industry” Power Magazine, August 22, 2023. www.powermag.com/training-fossil-fuel-workers-to-transition-to-renewables-industry/

Tom McGrath
Independent Candidate
U.S. House of Representatives

California's 47th Congressional District

Climate Change

Overview: Policies are needed to rapidly mitigate GHG emissions while ensuring energy security

Primary GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Methane is a potent near-term GHG

Global surface temperature rise since 1850 has been caused by emissions of GHGs from human activity

Future global temperatures depend on GHG emissions increase or decrease and atmospheric CO2 removal

Extreme and catastrophic weather- and climate-events cost the U.S. about $150 billion a year

75% of U.S. GHG emissions are CO2 from fossil fuel combustion

Reduce fossil fuel use balanced by an increase in renewable energy power generation

A policy priority is a progressive GHG emissions fee/tax with border adjustment

The U.S. Needs a Plan for GHG Emissions Reduction, Energy Security, and Clean Technology Development

References

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Tom McGrath Independent CandidateU.S. House of Representatives

California's 47th Congressional District

Climate Change

Overview: Policies are needed to rapidly mitigate GHG emissions while ensuring energy security

Primary GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Methane is a potent near-term GHG

Global surface temperature rise since 1850 has been caused by emissions of GHGs from human activity

Future global temperatures depend on GHG emissions increase or decrease and atmospheric CO2 removal

Extreme and catastrophic weather- and climate-events cost the U.S. about $150 billion a year

75% of U.S. GHG emissions are CO2 from fossil fuel combustion

Reduce fossil fuel use balanced by an increase in renewable energy power generation

A policy priority is a progressive GHG emissions fee/tax with border adjustment

The U.S. Needs a Plan for GHG Emissions Reduction, Energy Security, and Clean Technology Development

References

DOWNLOADS

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Tom McGrath
Independent Candidate
U.S. House of Representatives